Leaders in the industry are shrinking profits, can all-solid-state lithium batteries achieve technological breakthrough?

Recently, Battery China.com has learned from the official website of the National Development and Reform Commission that the National Development and Reform Commission plans to set a timetable for auto-equity ratio liberalization. In 2018, the foreign-invested equity ratio of new energy vehicles will be abolished, and domestic new-energy auto makers will face more direct foreign companies. Competition will also cause huge strategic pressure on power battery companies that are closely related to new energy vehicles. According to another understanding, it is expected that by 2020 China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be fully withdrawn. How to compete with international giants under the “unprotected” and unsubsidized status will be a major challenge for domestic power battery companies.

Industry leader shrinks profits

According to the data, in 2017, due to the rapid increase of power battery capacity and the subsidy of new energy vehicles, the price of Ningde Power Battery System was significantly reduced, resulting in a decrease in the company's gross profit margin, which fell from 2.28 yuan/Wh in 2015 to 2017. The year's 1.41 yuan / Wh, the cumulative decline of 38.26%. In terms of net profit after deduction, it was a growth from 2015 to 2016, which was 2.96 billion yuan in 2016, but it dropped to 2.47 billion yuan in 2017, a decrease of about 16% year-on-year.

According to the 2017 annual performance report released by BYD, BYD's performance was affected by changes in new energy subsidy policy, which led to a 19.5% year-on-year decrease in BYD's performance and a 3.93% drop in gross profit margin compared to 2016. The negative impact of new energy vehicle subsidy retreat to BYD's earnings is even more obvious in the first three months of 2018. According to statistics, the net profit range is only 0.5 to 150 million yuan, and the estimated net profit will be The year-on-year decline of 75.2% to 91.8%.

Batteries China Network learned that, in addition to Ningde era, BYD and other power battery industry leader has a significant decline in performance, profit shrinking, Xiong Yu shares, Fluoride, Star Source material, Anderson Technology, Godsend materials, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, will Kang A number of industrial chain companies, such as shares, also experienced a slowdown in performance growth and a drop in net profit. It can be seen from this that the overall efficiency of the power battery industry is not optimistic. In 2018, it will be a year of fierce competition and unusually difficult changes.

Ternary battery manufacturing costs soared

At present, the mainstream of batteries assembled for A0-class new energy passenger vehicles is ternary batteries, that is, lithium batteries with lithium nickel-cobalt-manganese oxide or lithium-nickel-cobalt-aluminate as cathode materials. Of these, cobalt metal plays an important role as a key material. The role. In China, cobalt is a very scarce resource. China's currently proven reserves of cobalt account for only a little more than 1% of the global total, and most of them rely on imports.

Congo (Kin) owns nearly 70% of the world's cobalt mines. According to overseas media reports, in January 2018, the Congo (Gold) government revised the mining tax law, which will impose a double tax on cobalt mines, in which the royalty tax on basic metals will increase from 2% to 3.5%. And with the global power battery companies aiming at ternary materials, the price of cobalt continues to rise, causing the cost of ternary batteries to soar. According to statistics, the cobalt price will exceed 800,000 yuan/ton in 2018.

Power battery energy density technology needs to be broken

As we all know, the higher the energy density of the power battery, the longer the vehicle’s mileage is, of course, and the higher the energy density of the power battery, the higher its technical level. According to Wan Gang, former Minister of the Ministry of Science and Technology, it is necessary to strive to double the energy density of the power battery unit and reduce the cost of the battery by half, so that the unit battery energy reaches 300 Wh/kg or more, and the cost will fall below one yuan/Wh.

According to China's "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap", it is clearly required that by 2020 China's power battery should reach a monomer energy density of 300Wh/kg, the system energy density should reach 260Wh/kg, and the monomer energy density should reach 400Wh/kg in 2025. The system energy density must reach 350Wh/kg; by 2030 the monomer energy density reaches 500Wh/kg. It shows that the breakthrough of power battery technology is a long way to go.

All-solid-state lithium battery technology breakthrough

Considering the potential of technology development, Sanyuan Li-ion battery has great difficulty in increasing the energy density. Authorities in the industry believe that, theoretically, the energy density of all-solid-state lithium battery has a wide range of feasibility. Experts said that in addition to the advantages of traditional lithium batteries, all-solid-state lithium batteries have great improvements in terms of safety and energy density, and their energy density can reach 300 to 400 Wh/kg.

In addition to the advantages of high safety and high energy density, all-solid-state lithium batteries have characteristics that other conventional batteries do not possess. According to reports, thin-film all-solid-state lithium metal batteries can reach 45,000 cycles, its maximum operating temperature is expected to reach 300 °C or even higher, its electrochemical window is expected to reach 5V, it also has the advantages of strong flexibility, easy recycling, etc. .

Authoritative experts in the industry said that "energy density should be further improved, and we must consider all-solid-state lithium batteries. The long-term development of the electric vehicle industry requires technical reserves, and all-solid-state lithium batteries are expected to become the next-generation automotive power battery leading technology line." China Net understands that many companies such as BYD and Zhongtian Technology have already deployed in the all-solid-state lithium battery field.

Technological leadership is the fundamental guarantee for companies to stand on the market. In the face of the new energy subsidies, the ever-increasing cost of battery materials, and the new situation of “naked warfare” by foreign companies, whether it is possible to intensify innovation and continuously break through the existing technological bottlenecks will be the top priority for domestic power battery companies to solve. Will all-solid-state lithium batteries bring about a new generation of power battery technology revolutions, and we will wait and see if the power battery companies can achieve technological leapfrog development.

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