Photovoltaic industry is facing the choice of advance and retreat

Last year, the global photovoltaic industry faced many difficulties. Double counter-sanctions, financial crisis... The prices of photovoltaic modules continued to fall at a rate of 10% to 15% per quarter. In addition, capacity building in 2010 almost completed the construction of capacity in 2015.

Internal digestion capacity

During the adjustment period, many photovoltaic companies began to extend their tentacles to the downstream, trying to internally digest the production capacity of PV modules.

In Bavaria, Germany, there is a photovoltaic power station constructed and operated by Jiangsu Zhongsheng Optoelectronics. The installed capacity of this photovoltaic power station is 1500 kilowatts, which is not a big project in Germany. At present, in the context of widespread industry-wide losses, Zhongsheng Optoelectronics has not suffered a loss and has been relatively stable.

Zhongsheng Optoelectronics is positioned as a "one-stop solar power solution provider." Permeate downstream, self-built power station projects, digest their own production capacity, effectively avoid price competition and enhance the company's competitiveness.

In addition to the traditional manufacturing business, Zhongsheng Optoelectronics' downstream power plant service sector accounts for two-thirds of the total, covering project development, EPC ("design, procurement, construction", similar project general contracting) and power plant investment and financing services. And "to make a 3 MW power station is equivalent to selling 15 MW components, and the profit margin is obviously higher than simply selling components."

It is only necessary to pay attention to methods and risks in the downstream of the industrial chain. After the power station is completed, it will also meet the challenges of power plant operation.

It is generally 8 to 12 years before investment in power plants can recover their costs if they rely on sales of electricity. There is no profit in the short term and additional investment is required. This obviously is not suitable for financially tight businesses. Under the BOT (build-operate-transfer) model, whether at home or abroad, the power station will undergo numerous procedures such as approval, construction, and inspection, and it will take more than two years to realize income.

Zhongsheng Optoelectronics is familiar with European and American markets and policies, looking for investors and building trust and further expansion. After Germany, Zhongsheng Optoelectronics has built 52 photovoltaic systems in France, Italy and other places, with a total installed capacity of 200,000 kilowatts. The more hidden barriers are, the more they go downstream, but the enterprises that can persist in the end are more likely to form their own core competitiveness.

Avoid double reverse

The photovoltaic industry's inventory competition is not overcapacity but overproduction. In 2010, the international market demand increased by 139%. Capacity expansion is entirely an "invisible hand" under command and cannot be blamed. After Europe and the United States cut subsidies, double opposition to China, is the "visible hand" has led to "excess."

The dual purpose of Europe and the United States is not to reverse the entire industrial chain, but to counter individual product links. Companies in the photovoltaic industry can avoid risks by simply taking the anti-European and European links to foreign countries for production. The sanctions can be taken to third-party countries for investment, or directly to the United States and European countries to invest in industrial penetration, making it weak. Therefore, it is necessary not only to develop foreign new application markets but also to develop foreign investment markets.

In China, the application market is starting up now, but there are still many problems that need to be solved. It is feasible to establish a distributed energy system in the eastern market. However, it is reasonable to establish a power station to digest the capacity in the western region. The reason for the lack of electricity in the east is that a large number of high-energy-consuming industries are here. High-energy-consuming industries can shift to the west, chasing solar energy resources and moving to the west. There are vast desert resources and abundant solar energy resources in the west, which are conducive to the construction and survival of photovoltaic power plants.

Technology leads industry differentiation

In addition to the market, the photovoltaic industry's future development depends on technology. Diversify photovoltaic materials, seek better materials, reduce costs, and increase conversion efficiency. Do not mention photovoltaics as crystalline silicon. In the case of saturated or even surplus production capacity, investing in technology research and development to improve product quality is the inevitable path for long-term development.

The cost of photovoltaics will continue to fall, and everyone will be able to afford it. The key to reducing costs and expanding the market lies in the transformation of science and technology, rather than the margin squeezed by some people.

Yingli's large capacity magnetic levitation flywheel energy storage technology can help Yingli find a new market. Intelligent communications and smart grids are becoming the entry point for the industrialization of large-scale energy storage projects. Yingli can industrialize large-scale energy storage projects.

It is important to note that not only solar energy but all new energy needs to develop energy storage technologies. The future of the new energy market is not dominated by marketers and manufacturers, but is the owner of energy storage technology. In the future, mastering practical energy storage technology is equivalent to mastering resources.

In addition, solar energy has great advantages. In addition to building power plants for scale applications, portable civilian product lines can also be developed, and their application areas are broader. This point, thermal power, water and electricity can not do, wind power can not do, solar energy can easily do it.

This fits in with another adjustment direction under the category of stock competition: broadening the application fields, realizing industrial differentiation, and finding a “new blue ocean” within the Red Sea. The downturn in the photovoltaic industry is characterized by a downturn in the manufacturing industry. If we look forward to this recovery along the way, it will be difficult to jump out of the industry.

Advance and retreat "chain" seeking
The current problems in the photovoltaic industry cannot be solved by expanding the market volume. Because the amount of expansion is still a long way from the current capacity and inventory in the industry. Moreover, the current excess production in the industry is not simply a dilemma caused by the relationship between supply and demand.

There are deep reasons behind the overcapacity. In the supply chain of the photovoltaic industry, the main body should be a system integrator. The market should be dominated by system integrators, but now it is guided by component manufacturers. This is a wrong way and an unhealthy development model.

Driven by strong market demand, upstream raw material manufacturers have taken the initiative in the supply chain, and system integrators cannot afford to assume market responsibilities. This dislocation of the supply chain led to manufacturing companies blind to the market judgment, capacity expansion has a certain degree of blindness, it also leads to the inevitable occurrence of the crisis, the industry must enter a "strategic adjustment period."

For PV companies, extending downstream to the supply chain is an active exploration and an active adaptation to the market. However, this adaptation must also be supported by elements such as technology and capital.

If it is a transition to system integration, but the system integrators after the transformation not only take projects, but must have a strong system of innovative design capabilities, have the ability to develop multi-level photovoltaic applications and application products, if the previous few The year of system integration is a dead end.

If you retreat to the "manufacturers" - it is said that the ultra-sun sun took this road, we must also be involved in the research and development and manufacturing of equipment, or we must starve to death.

Appropriate merger and reorganization

In the current circumstances, appropriate mergers and reorganizations are necessary. This is the strategy adopted by oil companies in the face of shrinking demand in the Asian market more than 10 years ago. At that time, mergers and acquisitions of oil companies affected the political and economic structure of various countries in the world, and even regional security. Today's merger and reorganization of the photovoltaic industry is also of great significance and will inevitably affect the strategic choice of countries in the development model for decades to come. When the two giant companies of Exxon and Mobil were able to merge, who could not join the PV industry?

2013 is the year of merger and reorganization of the photovoltaic industry, and it is bound to usher in the tide of mergers and restructuring. The reorganization must take place as early as possible, and whoever starts early and who has a large share of the global market, it will suffer a lot of losses.