The total market rapidly fell in the adjustment of the air-conditioning industry

The 2012 refrigeration year (hereafter referred to as the cold year) makes the air conditioning industry feel very cold. The negative rumors such as the shrinking market, inflated inventory and unsmoothed terminals during the year all accompanied the entire cold-year process from beginning to end. The industry is clearly aware that the air-conditioning industry is once again entering a challenging environment and it is increasingly difficult for companies to make markets. Therefore, it is of great significance to take stock of the development trajectory and market changes of the industry in the cold year of 2012 to meet the challenges of the future.

The Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center recently released the “White Paper of the 2012 Refrigerated Annual Air Conditioning Market in China” (hereinafter referred to as “White Paper”). Representatives of domestic and foreign brands all attended and showed great interest in the industry.

The “White Paper” pointed out that the domestic air-conditioning market has entered a relatively obvious period of adjustment in the cold year of 2012, and the sales growth rate, product structure, production enterprise structure, and sales system structure have entered a new adjustment stage. This multi-faceted adjustment will have a major impact on the domestic air-conditioning market in the next two years. The result is likely to be “the overall market size is relatively stable, the capacity expansion rate has slowed down significantly, the product structure has been further adjusted, the upstream and downstream resources have been accelerated to integrate, and are different. "Increasing channel competition and the industry reshuffle" and other trends.

In the cold year of 2012, the air-conditioning companies could no longer find the excitement brought about by high growth - the overall market sales situation has undergone fundamental changes. According to the data in the White Paper, under the influence of market pressure, inventory pressure, and poor convergence of policies, domestic air-conditioning sales volume fell by 25.12% year-on-year in this cold year, and sales volume fell by 19.36% year-on-year, a substantial year-on-year increase. Suddenly stop.

According to Cai Ying, Assistant Director of the Information Resource Development Department of the National Information Center, this is mainly due to the changes in the overall economic environment and the relatively conservative expenditures that have suppressed the release of spending power, weakened the support of policy support, reduced the level of public consumption and the desire to upgrade and replace. Irrational policies overdrawn consumer demand, real estate control policies continue to curb demand release, resulting in a rapid decline in the domestic air-conditioning market sales.

In the above reasons, he believes that the policy influence is the relative main reason, which is mainly reflected in two aspects: First, the centralized introduction of various policies for expanding consumption has broken the normal laws of economic operation, resulting in the concentrated release of short-term consumption potential and overdraft. Years of normal spending power; Second, the early realization of massive consumption has provided unrealistic consumption expectations to manufacturers or potential entrants, attracted new entrants, formed a new round of capacity expansion, caused an imbalance in supply and demand, and exacerbated market fluctuations. .

The impact of policy factors on the air-conditioning market is particularly evident in the 3rd and 4th markets: The proportion of sales in the 3rd-tier cities began to decline; the proportion of sales in the 4th-tier cities increased by less than 1 percentage point. The analysis results of the "White Paper" suggest that this means that the "engines" that have promoted the overall sales scale in recent years have begun to appear underpowered, and market saturation and consumer confidence have been gradually spreading to small and medium-sized cities; the overall market demand will basically be updated as follows: The relatively stable stage supplemented by the main and popularization, product quality, core functions, after-sales services, and brand reputation will become the key points of future competition.