Double inverse game to deepen PV prices or increase

Affected by the “double reverse” in the United States, polysilicon prices rebounded slightly. In addition to polysilicon in the PV industry chain, product prices continued their downward trend. Downstream demand is still relatively strong, shipments are relatively smooth, and the operating rate of first-tier companies remains at a relatively high level. The US "anti-dumping" tax rate exceeds 30%, and the Sino-U.S. trade war is expected to heat up, pushing up the price of polysilicon slightly.

International crude oil and domestic coal prices continued to fall, but US natural gas prices continued to rise. The uncertainties in the global economic situation have increased and the outlook for the European debt crisis is uncertain. Since the first week, crude oil prices and domestic coal prices in major futures markets have fallen. The price of natural gas in the United States rose slightly, and it was speculated that it was affected by the peak of summer electricity consumption.

China’s Ministry of Finance has announced that it encourages user-side photovoltaic power generation. The advantages of photovoltaic power generation on the user side in terms of grid compatibility and economic efficiency are increasingly valued by the government and the market. The total size of this year's “Golden Sun” project is conservatively estimated at 1,700 MW, and is likely to exceed expectations.

The State Council passed the "12th Five-Year Plan for National Strategic Emerging Industries Development", which ranked new energy generation. The fifth emerging industry is the new energy industry to develop mature nuclear power, wind power, solar photovoltaic and heat utilization, biomass power generation, and biogas, and actively promote the industrialization of renewable energy technologies. Encourage the development of new energy industries to achieve China's energy saving and emissions reduction target commitments. Compared with this year's "Government Work Report," the policy signal has changed significantly.

Japan's PV subsidy determined that all nuclear power plants will be shut down and ready for nuclear summer. Japan announced that it will implement a renewable energy feed-in tariff policy after July 2012, and electricity prices will be 42-42 yen. The high subsidy electricity price will obviously drive the demand of the Japanese PV market.

The Chinese and Japanese markets are expected to improve, but the reversal of the performance of domestic companies still requires patience. The European market is still facing greater uncertainty. The newly issued photovoltaic industry policies of the Chinese and Japanese governments have a very positive signal, but there are also certain difficulties in the short term. China's access to new energy grids has not been effectively solved, which has greatly limited the development speed of the photovoltaic market. The Japanese market is currently closed, and it will take time for domestic companies to enter the market. The debt crisis in Europe has become increasingly fierce. The international macro data have not shown any improvement. The German-Italian photovoltaic power price is still pending. It is highly probable that the subsidies will be lowered in the second half of the year, when the European rush to install the market will end.