Ping An Securities Investment Advisor Duan Yu: Polysilicon prices will oscillate at the bottom

Recently, Ping Yu Securities Investment Advisor Duan Yu accepted the Voice of Economy “Transaction Live” interview to analyze the polysilicon industry investment opportunities in detail. Duan Yu believes that because of the lack of demand, the price of polysilicon in 2012 is very likely to be a period of shock at the bottom.

Moderator: The price of polysilicon dropped sharply in 2011, and it has fallen by about 60% so far, and it has dropped more than 20% since the fourth quarter. We also see the latest statistics from China Silicon Industry Association, the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, showing that the current spot price of polysilicon in China continues to drop to 20-23 million tons per ton, and currently the price per kilogram is also around 220 yuan. As a result, there has been a suspension of production in the polysilicon industry. What is the reason behind the drop in polysilicon prices?

Duan Yu: First of all, supply exceeds demand. The expansion of polysilicon in China is very fast, but the global polysilicon expansion is also very rapid. Relatively speaking, the growth in demand is not very rapid. Basic European countries, Germany, Italy, and Spain account for a large part of these countries. The United States is relatively more My country and some other countries are relatively young. Due to slowing demand, the use of photovoltaics this year or next year will not show too much gain. But its capacity has grown very fast in the past two years. Under this premise, if the production capacity is too large, the direct result is the decline in terminal prices.

Moderator: We have seen that some related companies have already begun to suspend business, then stop production capacity can not guarantee price?

Duan Yu: Discontinued production is actually a destocking cycle. After going through the destocking cycle, these companies have seen polysilicon prices rise from more than 200 yuan to more than 300 yuan, which is already higher than their production costs. They will certainly continue production. However, we can also see that the suspension of production of some of these companies is for technical reforms. In the low tide of this industry, if they are able to do technological reform if they have strength, they are actually more conducive to his future competition.

Moderator: As for the price drop, there are now views that the bottom has been reached and will stabilize from December to January next year. It is possible that there will be a slight rebound in the first half of 2012 and stabilize at 40 to 45 US dollars per kilogram. There are still institutions that believe that polysilicon prices will not stabilize next year, on the grounds that demand has not been seen. How is your opinion?

Duan Yu: I think that in terms of overall prices, next year is still relatively a stable stage, especially in the first quarter of next year there may be a lower low. But from a year-round perspective, I do not think there will be too low lows. Currently, the most advanced cost is 20-25 USD/kg. From the price point of view, the space for the current decline is already relatively small. However, when the demand point of view allows the price of polysilicon to rise again, it must be less than the demand. situation. However, from the data I have obtained, I do not see this turning point. So I think next year is very likely to be a shocking stage at the bottom.

Moderator: Let's pay more attention to this de-inventory process. From your analysis of this analysis, and your mastery of the data, it will probably continue for how long?

Duan Yu: Now that all the stocks in the world are added up, our analysis should be 5-6G watts. Why are we talking about polysilicon which is calculated in tons, but from the point of view of inventory, it is calculated as G watts, because G watts is It is a measure of the final solar energy formation. What is the relationship between tons of polysilicon and G-watts? One kilogram of polysilicon can produce 40 pieces of polysilicon film. The general specification of a piece of polysilicon film is 156×156, and the corresponding wattage is 3.9 watts. Through this, one ton of polysilicon can be calculated to be almost 20 megawatts. From the current global inventory, there are almost 4-5G watts, if you want to consume, I guess the world at least once a quarter of the time.

Moderator: If there is a large-scale rise in solar photovoltaic demand, what kind of realistic conditions may it need?

Duan Yu: With the rise of solar photovoltaics on a large scale, I think the key is to reduce the cost of photovoltaic power generation to the stage where there is a relatively competitive advantage between the current thermal power and all of these wind power sources. From the current point of view, the entire photovoltaic power generation is relatively relatively high, and the cost is still relatively high. Every kWh power must be about one to two blocks, which is still relatively high at a technical level. Effect.

The U.S. Department of Energy’s goal is to reduce the cost of CSP to 10 cents/kW in 2015, which is about 5 or 6 cents; by 2020, it will have fallen to 5 per kilowatt, which means that it will be almost 2,3 The look of money. If at that time, photovoltaic power generation is very competitive. From the market point of view, it has this demand to regard photovoltaic power generation as a large-scale expansion of the industry. At present, relying solely on subsidy rather than market-oriented behavior, I do not think this industry will experience an explosive growth.