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Industry sources told reporters that today's smart speaker market is very similar to the wearable market in 2013 and 2014. Millet low price into the smart speaker market may be like millet into the mobile power, smart bracelet market, like, washed away some of the prices are extremely high, experience the odds, the use of bubble financing companies.
Analyst Analyst Feng Chao believes that the price of smart speaker products before is above 500 yuan, which is not conducive to most consumers to try to eat. Xiaomi enters the market at a low price, which can stimulate consumers' willingness to buy to a certain extent, but consumers The experience of use depends on the sound quality, technology and other services of the speakers. "However, the price of 299 yuan is more like an advanced toy. How is its use experience still unsatisfactory at the moment? If the experience is poor, it may cause user resentment and thus affect the sales of other speaker products, and if Xiaomi is smart, If speakers and other products have similar functions, the space for development of similar products will be limited.†However, millet speakers have not yet been formally sold, and only 1,000 are in beta in August.
The enterprise grabs the "air outlet"
In the first half of this year, artificial intelligence and smart speakers became the time for various companies to seize the “tuyere†period. In the domestic market, Tencent, Baidu, Ali each launched smart voice products and solutions, Himalayan FM Xiaoya AI speakers, Ali Tmall Elf, Lenovo smart speakers and so on is 999 yuan, 499 yuan, 899 yuan price to be released Own speaker products. From the aspect of appearance or function, in addition to listening to music, setting alarm clocks, reminding matters, and checking weather, the above speakers can also interact with consumers and control home smart devices.
Earlier, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon and other international giants have entered the field of smart speakers. Many companies have entered the smart speakers, which are considered to be the entrance of giants in the early layout of the AI ​​era. Millet PR once revealed to reporters that Xiaomi's AI smart speakers support the Mi-Mio platform that connects more than 60 million smart devices, and can easily control eight types of millet smart home devices through voice. Obviously, the low price of the millet speaker is not for profit, but the key to positioning the millet speaker to occupy the entrance of the smart Internet of Things.
Insiders told reporters that speaker products can not be moved and may not be able to meet the needs of a variety of room conditions. At present, many domestic consumers lack the dependence on such smart devices. From another point of view, with the development of technology, mobile phones are no longer the only computing center. Wearable devices and various smart products will rise. This will inevitably generate a large amount of user data, and the interaction between products will be interactive. The Internet of Everything model will become the mainstream trend.
The current artificial intelligence is considered to be still in its infancy, and the experience of smart speakers released by each company will not be much different. Technical barriers, data services, and availability are all problems. See the "Intelligent Speaker" virtual fire previously reported by the newspaper. BAT enters the competition for the market."
In an interview with reporters, Li Haibo said that the development of smart speakers and voice interaction is in line with the Gartner curve proposed by Gartner, a technology consulting firm. According to the Gartner curve, the new technology is divided into the technology start-up phase and the expected peak value from the concept, embryo development to maturity. Period, the valley of disillusionment, the period of comprehension climbing, and the period of saturation of efficiency, this year is a year of full competition for artificial intelligence. At this stage, smart speakers and voice interactions are clearly at the peak of capital bubble.
Low price shuffling market
On July 26th, Xiaomi released the Xiaomi 5X smart phone, MIUI 9 mobile phone system, and Xiaomi AI smart speaker in the breath at the Beijing National Convention Center. However, Xiaomi 5X and MIUI9, which should have been the focus of attention from the outside world, were already known as Xiaomi. The 299 yuan AI smart speaker released took up the limelight. Overnight, the entire smart speaker industry was stirred up by millet.
"But because millet speakers and the industry are cheaper than the industry, the overall price of the smart speaker industry will be directly lowered." Big Fish Butler CEO Wang Xiaole told reporters that the price of 299 yuan is close to the Bluetooth speaker that is upgrading the industry, millet this The first to be killed is the Bluetooth speaker product.
“Now everyone is catching ducks on the shelves and they can’t get up and down. If they want to withdraw, the funds and experience they invested in the previous ones will become obsolete. It is equivalent to saying that they haven’t entered the battlefield yet, and some small manufacturers are now selling goods. When it is finished, it will no longer be sold,†said Zhang Qiang, founder and CEO of Fantasy. He told reporters that he had met Xiaomi twice. In 2013, Xiaomi launched 69 yuan of mobile power, 10400mAH, LG/** star original batteries. According to the industry price at that time, to make the same quality, the cost was close to 80 yuan. In an instant, Xiaomi knocked out half of Shenzhen's mobile power plant. Within a year, Xiaomi mobile power sales directly rushed to tens of millions of units. Zhang Hao’s mobile power products plummeted and sales fell by half, and he was forced to turn to the gift customization market to maintain development. In the bracelet market, Xiaomi is still in the same routine, using the fan's advantages and low prices to hit the industry, very quickly put the price of 79 yuan bracelet to 1 million units, "For start-ups, the software and hardware are all enemies But opponents, the next round of financing will be far indefinitely, and directly cut off the possibility of big startup companies."
The giants will also be uncomfortable with the low price of Xiaomi's smart speakers. At present, China's smart speaker market is characterized by large thunder and small raindrops. Many companies have "occupied the pit," and first disclosed to the outside world the idea to launch smart speakers, but so far, Lenovo, Haier, Tencent and other companies of smart speaker products, although the debut, but did not formally sold in the market.
Li Haibo told reporters that in March this year, he saw hundreds of companies doing smart speakers at the China Consumer Electronics Show (AWE), but all of them were model machines. “At that time, everyone was eager for this market, and Xiaomi’s was low. Price-based routines, large companies may be able to compete with Xiaomi, but most of the SMEs will be too low because of profits, or eliminated in advance or adjust the direction, smart speaker outlet will end prematurely."
The above sources told reporters that smart speakers are a blue ocean market. When capital enters, many companies want to squeeze in. However, many companies do not start from the needs of users. The next year to one and a half years, from these hundreds Inside the home, 90% of companies will be eliminated and then come to a stable period.
Fighting "Baby" on the deck
Previously, Xiaomi launched a series of Internet products, has always used a low-cost strategy, so the industry has even been labeled as a "price butcher," and millet is also subject to hostility and wary of many brands. However, Wang Xiaole told reporters that the price of the 299 yuan speaker sound can allow smart speakers to quickly expand the market, and to nurture users.
The healthy development of any industry starts with a high profit period and then enters a low profit period. The involvement of Internet companies directly caused hardware prices to go down and subsidize hardware losses through software revenue. “At present, the development stage of smart speakers is like a baby fighting on the deck. Every company is a baby, and everyone is not mature. Armor is not capable of resisting. Xiaomi's approach is tantamount to taking down the baby's underside of the foot, so that most of the small businesses will die." Li Haibo believes that the healthy development of the industry should not be "quick success." "Peach" approach, the fruit is not mature, not when the time to pick it off.
Wang Xiaole believes that the low-cost advantage is likely to bring about an imbalance in cost allocation. Low-cost profit margins can easily drive companies at the expense of hardware investment and AI technological innovation. The Internet of Things think-tank mentioned to Xiaomi that "the three sins," the emergence of smart speakers lies in the first step in opening up artificial intelligence. All of these require a lot of technology and funds to drive, once the market falls into low-price competition, technological innovation. The development is easily constrained.
Another industry source told reporters that, at present, Lenovo and Tencent smart speaker products are not listed, the future price will certainly be affected.
However, Xiaochuan Technology co-founder Wang Chuan did not think this way in an interview with this reporter: “Usually everyone has a misunderstanding that only high-margin companies can innovate. In fact, innovation has nothing to do with Gao Maoli, and today the vast majority Innovation is the result of startup companies.†He believes that in recent years is the highest period of Apple's gross profit, but it seems that everyone does not feel that Apple has any innovation. “The current millet's gross margin is very low, I am not worried about Xiaomi’s innovation. Spiritually, but if the future gross margin comes up, I really worry about it."
In recent years, regardless of the industries such as drones, smart wear, VR, AR, etc., every time a tuyere arrives, capital investment will make it easier for some bubble-type companies to blow up the soap bubbles. When the soap bubbles blow up, the entire industry Development has also been affected. Many insiders told the reporter that the major harm is that some companies received the money from investors, but were later squeezed out by the market bubble. Eventually, investors lost trust in the industry and damaged the enterprises that really have the strength to make products. .
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"Price butcher" millet push ultra-low speaker blood washing industry
At around 4:30 in the afternoon on July 26, the sun had not yet set, and the weather in Beijing was still hot. Just sitting in the Xiaomi conference, Chen Dong (a pseudonym) sat on the steps of the exit of the Olympic Park Subway Station E. He was the hardware product manager of a smart speaker company in China. He held his mobile phone in both hands and he answered the WeChat message. At the moment, his heart was mixed. A group of Weixin’s WeChat group gathered more than 200 domestic companies that are doing smart speakers. However, just an hour ago, the group suddenly exploded due to a smart speaker released by Xiaomi (hereinafter referred to as “xiaomiâ€). The pot, because millet to the product out of the price of only 299 yuan, some smart speaker companies even claimed in the group "does not have to do, ready to no longer be a smart speaker." Li Haibo, general manager of the Himalayan hardware division, told the “China Business†reporter that the price of millet has almost threatened all intelligent speaker products on the market, and it has suppressed the innovation power of some enterprises to some extent.