Global fab capacity forecast for 2011 grows by 8%

According to the latest global fab forecast released by SEMI, it is estimated that there will be 8% capacity growth in 2010 and 2011, respectively, and it will grow by 9% in 2012. Compared with the double-digit annual growth from 2003 to 2007, SEMI's estimates for the next year are relatively conservative.

If we observe the annual growth rate of production capacity since 2004 from the industrial sector, the LED industry has achieved the most outstanding performance and has grown rapidly at a double-digit rate over the past six years. In the past, the situation in which the memory industry led the growth of the industry has changed. The growth rate of the memory industry has been double that of the foundry. It will remain equivalent to the foundry in 2012.

Driven by process technology upgrades and continued expansion of production requirements, fab spending will grow by 18.3% in 2011 and 9.5% in 2012. Among them, spending on memory, foundry, and MPU is the most obvious. In the fab investment of 2011, the expenditure on plant construction decreased by 11%. Since the manufacturers did not announce a clear new plant construction plan at present, the construction expenditure for 2012 was not yet clear.

Compared with the decrease in construction spending, the estimated amount of investment in the process-related equipment of the fab in 2011 will increase by 23% to reach US$40 billion, surpassing the 2007 level, setting a record high in 19 years. The top three areas of semiconductor equipment spending in 2010 were memory, fab, and MPU.

However, the report also pointed out that the construction plan for new semiconductor plants in the next two years will obviously drop sharply. Zeng Ruixin, senior research manager of SEMI industry, said that because the new plant needs 1. 8-24 months of planning, construction, equipment installation, certification and For trial operation, if the time for launch is too slow, it is feared that the growth momentum of the semiconductor industry may not be sufficient after 2 years.

It is worth noting that consumer demand for many new applications and electronic devices has made NAND one of the fastest-growing markets, and a drop in NAND prices has accelerated the growth of market demand.