In the "home" of new energy vehicles, what should we think and invest in?

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The new energy vehicle is undoubtedly a growth industry. We can deduce the optimism of this industry's prospects from various simple logics. The domestic plan is to reach the target of 5 million stocks by 2020, 10 times and 10 times the space. The growth rate of the industry is extremely sexy, and it is not much more than any industry. Let's take a look at the related content with the car electronics editor.

But in the past two years, it has been a cyclical industry with typical characteristics of a cyclical industry. Looking at the trend of stocks related to the new energy auto industry, it also shows many ups and downs like a roller coaster. This paper attempts to review how to treat and invest in an industry that has both growth and cyclical characteristics and has obvious policy-driven attributes from a relatively simple perspective.

In the "home" of new energy vehicles, what should we think and invest in?

From the end of 2015 to the first half of 2016, it is actually entering the large-scale heavy-duty period for the first time in the new energy automobile industry. It is a stage of policy-driven and fundamental resonance. In short, it is the policy-driven industry price increase. The pressure of overcapacity will only begin to appear in 2017 at the earliest, and there is no falsification pressure in the short term. So for the market that was in the structural market at the time, it is easy to focus on this growth opportunity, giving the industry a discount on the possible growth prospects for the next two years or even longer. For example, for the leading battery companies in the industry, they will use the production plan for the next few years to calculate the output, and then multiply the unit price and the net interest rate (even if the price reduction factor is considered to be optimistic), to calculate the net profit and market value space. The calculated valuation is not expensive.

Therefore, even if the short-term fundamentals of the industry actually begin to deteriorate, but because the long-term logic is not directly damaged and falsified, the stock price trend will be stronger than the fundamentals, or it will be more late than the fundamentals. In fact, the fundamentals of the industry have begun to deteriorate at the margin of the second quarter of 2016. The verification of industry fraud has begun, and the new subsidies will be greatly reduced and spread in the market, and the large-scale expansion plan for each link will be The excess pressure from 2017 to 2018 is also becoming clearer, but at that time, the market still believes that 700,000 units will be sold in the whole year. It is believed that logistics vehicles and passenger vehicles will increase the volume and drive the outbreak of the ternary industrial chain. The second quarter is the acceleration of the entire sector. At that time, the market was more concerned about the company's capacity planning. The verification of the order quantity of downstream customers did not pay much attention to it, and this is very important in the shuffling stage of the industry entering fierce competition.

In the second half of 2016, as the fraudulent verification incident became clearer, the market began to realize that it underestimated the toughness of the policy. From the introduction of fraudulent results, to the recommended catalogues of the models later than expected, the cash flow of listed companies in the industry deteriorated, and the capital occupation of the industrial chain was also more serious. The shipments that were not worried about the market began to have problems. The market also came from the second wave of the policy in October, which was unanimously expected to come out in October, and lost more confidence. Until the end of the year, the model catalogue was introduced, and the subsidy landed. In November and December, the volume was 180,000, and the market remained. No response, individual stocks continue to adjust. In addition to its own valuation overdraft performance expectations, behind the long-term logic of the industry has also changed. The market is aware that the government's strict control over subsidies and accelerated withdrawal will force industry innovation to accelerate. The real opportunity is the leading companies in the industrial chain with strong cost reduction, excellent quality control and outstanding innovation advantages. Specifically, the market is looking forward to seeing Model 3 like Tesla. In the future, companies that can rely on subsidies and licenses to promote the relevant models of the relevant industry chain, or optimistic about the industry chain can support the most The leading company for the strongest downstream customers.

At this stage, the industry must face the transmission of the overall price reduction pressure after the subsidies have subsided, and the pressure of overcapacity after the accelerated expansion of the industry in 2016. The valuation is also optimistic from the first half of 2016 to 2017. The pessimism that the annual volume is uncertain and the price will fall by a large margin. Therefore, when you have not seen the opportunities for the explosive models in the downstream automakers, everyone's views on the industry are easy to be cautious. For companies in the industry, compared with the planning of production capacity, everyone began to pay more attention to the downstream customers, how to order the intention, and repeated investigation and communication with downstream customers to verify. Simply put, everyone is concerned about the shipments and prices in 2017, and these two points may be very important in the industry reshuffle stage.

After more than a year, we can think that leading companies are using the growth and previous adjustments to absorb the pressure of valuation. After returning to reasonableness, this year's new energy auto sector will improve marginally when the market is pessimistically expected. In fact, it is very important. The expected difference in this improvement comes from two aspects, one is that supply is lower than expected, and the other is that demand exceeds expectations. First of all, we need to re-examine the distinction between nominal supply and actual supply. The latter may be significantly lower than the former, such as equipment procurement, production line integration installation and commissioning progress, yield control, management capabilities, etc. The entrants may be far more difficult than expected before, and in fact we have been overestimated or pessimistic about overcapacity. From the perspective of demand, domestically, in order to adapt to the requirements of the new subsidy policy and digest the impact of the rush to install at the end of last year, after the sales trough in the first quarter, the industry's scheduling in the second quarter began to recover, and the chain continued to grow positively. In the peak season of sales, the low base of last year will have a bright increase. After all the links in the industrial chain have experienced the impact of price cuts in the first quarter, the uncertainty of prices has been greatly eliminated, and the market can pay more attention to the changes in volume. The introduction of the double-point opinion draft has not been postponed as rumors. At the time of implementation, the state encourages the development of the industry with a firm attitude, and more emphasis on supporting innovation-driven and popularized use, and supporting and strengthening, the fundamentals of the industry are evolving in a positive direction.

The larger demand expectations may be from abroad, which may be underestimated in the framework of the previous market. Many people think that as long as they pay attention to the heavy volume of the Chinese market, this year, a very important factor is The overseas motor industry's electrification wave exceeded expectations. Overseas Volkswagen, BMW, GM, Nissan, etc. have released their electrification strategies, and several models will be launched in the next two years. The rapid growth trend has already been achieved. Tesla's Model 3 began production in July and began to produce 20,000 units per month in December. Volvo said that all new cars will be pure electric or hybrid vehicles from 2019. BAIC and Daimler have signed an agreement to jointly invest in the production of pure electric vehicles, which will bring to companies entering the relevant industry chain. The systematic revaluation of demand is also more clear and optimistic about the future growth prospects of the industry.

As for the market, the current passenger car only relies on the low-end car volume represented by A00, which does not represent the direction of the industry. We feel that just as the domestic smart phones imitated Apple and Samsung from the low end, and now the rise of Huawei, OPPO and VIVO, In the process of heavy volume, the supporting capacity of the industrial chain has been formed, and a number of internationally competitive companies have been born in each link. At this same stage, we also began to see the ability of some leading companies in the industry chain to enter the foreign industry chain. The new energy automobile industry from low-end to high-end, from imitation to innovation, is only a matter of time, because China has the largest consumer market and strong Engineers' bonuses and the most comprehensive industrial chain supporting capabilities, not to mention the new energy vehicles, our starting line is not far from abroad.

Whether it is a traditional car or a new entrant, major automakers at home and abroad have been actively involved in this transformation. Then we should look at the industry now and take into account the perspectives of the growth industry and the cyclical industry. We should pay attention to the killing of the cyclical industry for the profit and valuation, but we must pay more attention to this stage, the promotion of the leading market share and the industry. Changes in the pattern. Along with the improvement of industry concentration, leading companies have outstanding pricing power and cost management advantages. R&D strength, operational efficiency, ability to obtain low-cost funds, and status of the industrial chain will all show the characteristics of strong and strong, profitability. And the ability to resist risks of economic fluctuations is stronger. We can see a lot of industries that have entered the mature stage and the overall growth rate is single digit. The growth rate of leading enterprises can still be maintained at 20%-30%.

Differentiation and concentration will be the norm in the industry, and investment opportunities in the future sector will be more reflected in the supply chain of the explosion models. The supply-side reform has also occurred at this stage of the new energy vehicle. In addition to the policy to strengthen the support and encourage the direction of innovation, the spontaneous development of market forces is more important. The industry also has a high correlation between natural and innovation, technological advancement and consumption upgrades. This is also an important and even dominant variable in structural opportunities in the future, high energy density, light weight, fast charge, better system integration and solutions, Excellent standards in the direction of automotive electronics and intelligent applications are worthy of attention. Positive changes in some companies may occur gradually, and stock prices may lag behind. Just as the market sentiment was optimistic, the stock price lags behind the fundamentals. At this stage, the stock price may also lag behind the fundamentals. We should maintain a positive attitude and closely track investment opportunities.

The above is about the "home" of automotive electronics - in the "home" of new energy vehicles, we should look at the relevant introduction of investment, if you want to know more information, please pay more attention, electronic engineering will provide you with more complete and detailed , updated information.