"In the past five months or so, the National Development and Reform Commission has not approved any projects for pure electric vehicle passenger vehicles." Recently, the Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Commerce and other five ministries and organizations jointly organized the "Advance Vehicle Company Average Fuel Consumption and New Energy Vehicle Integral Management Measures" promotion conference, the meeting made it clear that the Chinese government is proceeding with the investigation of new energy sources. Vehicle capacity to confirm if there is excess. It is worth noting that during the past five months or so, the National Development and Reform Commission has not approved any projects for pure electric vehicle passenger vehicles. "Approval was stopped in June this year," said a new car executive who is currently applying for qualifications. "At that time, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a joint report to the local investment management department requesting the suspension of approval of the project for the trial of pure electric passenger vehicles." Che Yun learned from industry sources close to the National Development and Reform Commission that by the middle of next year, approvals for new energy projects are unlikely to be restarted. The state hopes to use this time to adjust future access conditions for new energy vehicles and strictly inspect new energy production capacity for production and sales. The bottom of the company is likely to be eliminated. The tightening of policy is undoubtedly a huge loss for new carmakers that are rapidly growing up in China. "If we can't complete the manufacturing layout at this stage, then it will be very difficult for them to wait for the two-year window period to pass," said the new car company executives. Examine the excess capacity, or push the end of elimination According to data from the China Automobile Association, in the first nine months of this year, new energy vehicles sold a total of 398,000 vehicles, an increase of 37.7% year-on-year. If this rate of speeding progresses, 700,000 new energy goals this year are likely to fail. At the same time, the "Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap" pointed out that by 2020, the proportion of new energy vehicles in the total sales of automobiles will exceed 7%, which will be calculated according to the annual production and sales volume of 30 million vehicles, which means sales of new energy vehicles in 2020. To reach at least 2.1 million vehicles. However, even if China's new energy production capacity has advanced by leaps and bounds and it has successfully entered the target, it has also formed a strong contrast with the development of new energy production capacity. According to incomplete statistics, according to the information released by major companies, 32 Chinese companies have begun to allocate their production capacity in the field of new energy vehicles. If all of these plants are put into operation on schedule and production capacity is fully released, the total production capacity will reach 696 by 2020. 10,000 cars. In other words, if there is no relevant control at this stage, by 2020, China's new energy vehicle production capacity will be more than three times the sales. Previously, traditional energy vehicles have also experienced the problem of some idle capacity, and even companies that are almost on the verge of bankruptcy have obtained new qualifications for selling production qualifications. At the same time, overcapacity is also a great possession and waste of social resources. It is precisely because of this that the state has cancelled the qualifications of some enterprises. At present, in the field of new energy, China has also started the investigation of production capacity. "After this round of investigations, the NDRC will likely issue a final phase-out system," said industry insiders close to the NDRC. "It will even delimit a threshold, for example, the actual annual sales in the first year will be below 500 units." The second year may cancel the qualification of production." Entry barriers will increase, and it will be difficult to restart before mid-year next year While China is closely investigating new energy production capacity, the approval of new energy vehicle production qualifications will be difficult to restart. “In the middle of this year, the NDRC really suspended the approval of the qualification of pure electric vehicles, mainly because the dispute started to grow larger,†said industry insiders. Che Yun was informed that this "controversy" mainly focused on two levels, the first is speed, and the second is the scale. Since the first “Enrollment Card†of BAIC New Energy in March last year, the frequency of the NDRC's granting of new energy vehicle production qualifications has been unpredictable and has gradually accelerated. Specifically, the second and third qualifications for Changjiang Automobile and Great Wall Huaguan are separated by two months and five months, respectively. Since mid-October of last year to June of this year, only less than eight months have passed. 15 qualifications. In addition, among the 15 companies that have obtained qualifications, in addition to the already powerful projects such as BAIC New Energy, there are so-called “zombie companies†that have not produced a car for many years, such as Henan Suida, the specific standards and standards for examination and approval. Caused industry discussions. “The NDRC hopes to amend the current approval policy by suspending the qualification review period.†According to industry sources mentioned above, “including the review criteria for corporate R&D, factories, talents, funds, etc. may be further tightened. It is expected that the first half of next year Will not open." Three-year window, new car companies welcome key development nodes Due to the key window period of the industry's development, the state will strictly investigate the new energy production capacity and may even narrow the access window. This is undoubtedly a huge waste for the new car power. According to statistics from Che Yun, at present, nearly 20 new car companies are in the process of applying for qualifications. The factory has already completed site selection or construction. As we all know, the automobile is a heavy asset industry. Li Bin, Chairman of Weilai Automobile, said that the initial layout would require 20 billion yuan. If once the production qualifications fail, the huge amount of investment in these companies will be overdone. Che Yun learned from a number of new-build companies that there are currently two “curves to save the country†approach. The first is OEM. At present, the two new car companies Weilai and Xiaopeng have already confirmed that their first electric car products will be put into production by means of OEM. Among them, Weilai’s foundry is Jianghuai and Xiaopeng is relying on Zhengzhou’s Haima. Through the foundry approach, these companies have found ways to quickly land products and occupy time windows before they are qualified for production. However, because the foundry model includes potential problems such as unclear brand recognition and difficulty in controlling product quality, it is more of an expedient measure. Can testify that Xiaopeng Motor's factory in Zhaoqing, Guangdong Province has been sited, Weilai also has factory site reserves in Wuhan. Followed by buying shells. In February of this year, Weimar Motors invested 1.18 billion yuan in the acquisition of Dalian Huanghai Automobile Co., Ltd. Che Yun learned from Shen Hui, Chairman of Weima Automobile. Through this transaction, Weimar has obtained products including SUV and MPV. Qualification. According to the plan, in the first half of 2018, Weimar's first electric SUV product will be on the market. Che Yun was informed that, in addition to Weimar, there are a number of new car companies in search of suitable "shell resources", but due to the existence of the auto industry exit mechanism, the current target for the subject has become less and less expensive. From this point of view, it is necessary to gain a firm foothold in the window period of 2018-2020, leaving the time for new car companies to be calculated on a daily basis.
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